RED McGuire

Major Robert E. McGuire
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Fort Belvoir, Virginia

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army or the US Government.

Kaplan’s Impending Anarchy- Sixteen Years Later

In 1994, Robert D. Kaplan published an article in The Atlantic Monthly entitled,” The Coming Anarchy.” His argument, which is actually included in the extended title of his article, is that “scarcity, crime, overpopulation tribalism, and disease are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet (Kaplan 94).” Kaplan used West Africa as the “prism” through which the looming and quite rapid destruction of our social fabric could be best understood. The doom of Western Africa being apparent, the rest of the world was soon to follow a “few decades hence.” Sixteen years later, just over a decade and a half, it has become quite apparent that Kaplan got it wrong. His erroneous prediction was the result of his presumptions about the observable phenomena in Western Africa and his broader application to the rest of the world. This essay addresses four such presumptions.

First, Kaplan presumed that Western Africa was doomed and that its demise was indicative of what soon would follow for the rest of the world. He then chose some other troubled regions to buttress his argument. In 2010, how is Western Africa, his “prism” doing? In a word, they are doing better. The abysmal period between 1990 and 1995 was followed by what may be the beginning of a new era for Western Africa. One indicator is the entrance of China into the African market which has encouraged new interest from the western powers (Lar 08). Not only has Western Africa proven to be alive, although arguably unhealthy, it may be on the cusp of disproving another of Kaplan’s presumptions- discounting the remarkable.

Second, Kaplan made the mistake of presuming that the historical trend of Western Africa would continue the same for the foreseeable future. He held, although perhaps unknowingly, a pessimistic uniformitarian view. Thoughtful observers will notice when looking at the course of human history that things have not continued at a predictably steady rate. There have been major events which altered an uniformitarian unfolding of history. Look at the renaissance period for example. This brief period catapulted humanity forward at a remarkable rate previously unseen. We have not slowed sense, at least in the developed world. This phenomenon is not relegated to the annals of the past. Pivotal change is possible now and in the future- even in Africa. Many times these pivotal changes are the result actions that confound another of Kaplan’s presumptions- people are utterly selfish.
Third, he discounts the potential and the impact of benevolent human action. He presumed the worst about human nature. Both Western Africans and the rest of humanity have a stake in, and therefore care, at some level, about what happens to the social fabric of our world. In the last sixteen years, Western Africa has been wrestling with the underlying causes and results of civil war. Progress has been slow and hard fought, but the genesis of the progress is the desire of Western African’s for change. They have not been alone in their efforts. In addition to the emerging economic interests from China and the West, there are numerous governmental aid programs and private non-profit charities that have come alongside the West African people. For example, the U.S. contributed nearly 6 billion dollars in Official Developmental Assistance (ODA) contributions to Sub-Saharan Africa between 2007 and 2008 (Shah 10). This does not account for money given by charities or dollars given by other governments who have a stake in the Western Africa. People care; they are doing something about the problem, and they are making a difference. Some of these contributions that make a difference are in resources other than money. The application of technological advances to address the problem of scarcity can have an enormous impact. Kaplan overlooked these as well.

Finally, Kaplan presumes that technology will not address the scarcity problem. Every so often, technology takes an exponential leap forward which generally has profound implications to our quality of life. One salient example of the type of technological advances that may have a long-term positive effect on the problem of scarcity is Ecological Engineering or Restoration. A recent example of this effort comes from China’s Loess Plateau. In 2005, the Chinese government, with help from the World Bank, successfully restored 35,000 square kilometers of ravaged plateau along the watershed of the Yellow River (Mozur 09). The cooperation of government, global financial institutions, and a cross section of various engineers and scientists demonstrated that the effects of environmental misuse can be addressed by a thoughtful and committed group of people. It is quite feasible that this example can be reproduced in Western Africa and in the broader global context as we pursue sources of energy less harmful to ecosystems which sustain scarce resources.

Although hind sight and the added benefit of making observations about someone else’s predictions tend to make arm chair quarterbacking a risk-free endeavor, one can see the pitfalls in Kaplan’s presumptions. Sure, in 1994 things were really bad in Western Africa and even a number places where the fighting for resources increased competition and conflict. Was the phenomenon in Western Africa, as fascinating as the analogy may have been, indicative of what was to come for the rest of the world? No, at least not yet. Africa is not the world, and, thus far has proven less a more hopeful “prism” through which to view the world. One aught not presume that things will continue at the same rate or in the same fashion over time without significant events that alter the potential outcomes. Things will and do change in an unpredictable fashion. An overly pessimistic view about the human condition is not helpful. Sure, we humans have our faults, but we can rise to the occasion every so often. Sometime in a way that changes everything. Finally, leaps in technology will happen. They may be separated by generations or even at times by millennia, but they are inevitable because we are creative and we like to be comfortable. One can be relatively certain of activity being devoted to sustaining life and luxury in the future. We may even be able to learn to share a little.




Bibliography

Kaplan, Robert D. The Coming Anarchy, how scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism, and
disease are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet,
The Atlantic Monthly, February, 1994, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/4670/
(accessed September 13, 2010)

Lar, Jimam. Africa Traction, Comments on Africa, No. 3, Conflict Security
and Development Group (CSDG), Kings College London, September 2008 http://www.securityanddevelopment.org/pdf/africa3.pdf,(accessed September 14, 2010)

Muzor, Paul. Lessons of the Loess, New York Times, December 10, 2009,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/10/opinion/10iht-edmozur.html,
(accessed September 15, 2009)

Shah, Anyup. Foreign Aid for Development Assistance, Global Issues, April 25, 2010
http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance
(accessed September 15, 2010)